Predictive text? Why Superforecasting is top of Dominic Cummings For the beginner, by a Fields Medallist. are classics about the presentation of information by the worlds leading expert. His boss and predecessor was Kelly Johnson who wrote. Many ideas you see from others (e.g Taleb) derive from Mandelbrot. Ill do a separate list on science funding. NB. He understood politics and government in a way I think almost nobody in 20th Century politics did and influenced it more than almost any elected leader. ), here are some books and a few papers I recommend. Nobel-winner, Feynman sparring partner, co-founder of Santa Fe Institute, wrote a book on complex systems for the general reader. Why? He was a mathematician who got interested in how markets work. Twitter Web App Retweets This Tweet was deleted by the Tweet author. ), Dostoyevsky. Brilliant physics books for the interested non-specialist written by a top physicist, widely praised by Nobel Prize winners, used in his Berkeley course voted best course on campus. Viz the famous lists, Yes to Renoir, Welles, Chaplin, Keaton, No to Fellini (tried to watch 8 1/2 at least five times and fallen asleep fast every time) and Hitchcock. Just like despite ARPA-PARCs success, almost no science funding is done like that in the world (hence why I made the creation of. Grovess last personnel report concluded that his effectiveness is unfortunately lessened somewhat by the fact that he often irritates his associates, but he has extraordinary capacity to get things done. Then he was effectively fired. I blogged a series on this great book starting. Considered by many in Silicon Valley to be the best book on the details of management. (I used this to argue for checklists and transparency over the repeated failures of social services with child abuse when in the Department for Education 2011-14. The main biography of Buffett, , is also interesting. Dominic Cummings Quotes - BrainyQuote A classic non-specialist introduction to reasoning. , Ben Rich. The Ascent of Man, Bronowksi. Most educated people remain unaware of how little home environment affects IQ/education nor that modern analysis of DNA has confirmed the data from decades of twin/adoption studies. Now, perhaps, they have some idea of what that. W hen Dominic Cummings arrived in Downing Street, some of his new colleagues were puzzled by one of his mantras: "Get Brexit done, then Arpa". Although Nietzsche despised nothing more than the radical left, he became extremely influential on it, perhaps because nobody else so thoroughly demolishes the foundations of liberal democracy, although, in a further twist, few of the left realise the extent to which they are influenced by him. One must not be squeamish about admitting this (Strauss). The main biography of Buffett, The Snowball, is also interesting. I was amazed and desperate. On the 50th anniversary Munger reflected on why his partnership with Buffett had been so successful and Buffetts personality. Click repeat), , Hamming. . A lot of Boyd (including getting inside your enemys OODA loop) is interpreting Sun Tzu after 2,000 years of case studies proving him right plus some modern ideas. I thought this was outstanding and every young person aspiring to be influential in politics should read it. Can we survive technology?, von Neumann, 1955. With Bismarck you can follow the twists and turns of a true (and monstrous) genius in great detail and learn an extraordinary amount about how politics, government, war and diplomacy truly work. (I knew Mark, a professor at Cambridge, who spent a huge amount of time over the past decade helping state school pupils get hold of great physics material via Isaac Physics. It is, therefore, practically unknown in SW1. I googled recently after getting no reply to an email and learned to my dismay that he died of cancer last year. 2h It is not a forecast & says explicitly 'this is not a forecast' 2 1 Thoughts on past and future of the Buffett system, Charlie Munger. A classic book on mathematical problem solving. Our impression was there is valuable low hanging fruit for governments, hedge funds, campaigns. Blurb endorsement by Einstein. On digital fabrication. I'm thinking re 'What should Labour do to win the next election'. Alan Kay, one of those present at the creation, says its by far the best history. I put * next to 7 which is a guess at what people 100 years hence will find most interesting on this list. If youre in Georgia, visit her house in Milledgeville. Next week I'll write something for subscribers only on 'Some basics of how to do regime change'. (A counterfactual: if Thatcher had taken his advice in the early 1980s and rejected the emerging Single Market plan and embarked on civil service reform?). Almost no MPs or senior officials study him or are even midly interested. The media laughed and many said its so boring. Almost no MPs, journalists or academics have any idea about just how costly such bureaucracy truly is or how these bureaucracies truly work and the criminality and near-insanity theyre capable of. Someone should run a prize for the best 10,000 word essay summarising the fundamental lessons of this book (which I havent read in full, just skimmed, because of time not a judgement). I found his Nobel lecture fascinating and I suspect it would be one of the most useful things to force politicians and senior officials to read. Governments find it very, very hard to fund such ventures. Great DVD documentary too. The critical meta-lesson is the same for all the below: Grovess last personnel report concluded that his effectiveness is unfortunately lessened somewhat by the fact that he often irritates his associates, but he has extraordinary capacity to get things done. Then he was effectively fired. You have to neglect things if you intend to get what you want done. Likes. Their favourite argument is the laughable its a small island, about as sensible as a general saying Alexander the Great was using cavalry so its out of date. Why Superforecasting is top of Dominic Cummings' reading list Perhaps hoping his colleagues will be able to see into the future, the prime minister's chief adviser has advocated a book on how to. Steve has a startup that is a leading player in this emerging field. E.g rapidly speeding up construction/housing/infrastructure, how to accelerate scientific discovery and technological development. Warning, its an accurate portrayal of atrocities on the Eastern Front therefore truly horrific. A year later he lost a power struggle with. There are fields like professional mathematics and equity investing where institutions mean the best people are recognised over time. If you read his blogs and trusted him on covid over the entire CDC/FDA/WHO bureaucracies, youd have come out far ahead. Gdels Lost Letter & P=NP (on maths, logic, P=NP, computational complexity), Steve Hsu (in general, and if interested in extreme talent Steve blogs a lot on this). . , Gelfand and Glagoleva. An inspiration for changes to maths teaching I pushed in 2011-14, including trying to get a maths for Presidents course going. (NB. I think hes right that most academics assume models for how this works that are clearly not how people really think under pressure. Yes its striking that looking at my internet favourites for politics there are no UK-based political blogs/writers I regularly read. Just like despite ARPA-PARCs success, almost no science funding is done like that in the world (hence why I made the creation of ARIA one of my terrorist demands when Boris asked me to go to No10, 21 July 2019). Pentagon Wars, Burton. Dominic Cummings is a man known to be fond of reading lists (Oliver Wright writes).But while the prime minister's chief adviser exhorts others to read books on subjects such as . Never At Rest, Westfall. Dominic Cummings: Key points from his evidence to select - Sky News The basic arguments remain critical today. I will publish soon a chronology of 1862-67 following the twists and turns of Schleswig-Holstein, the escalating conflict with Austria, the domestic conflict running through the period. On prediction. For us its often seen as high level political philosophy but it was bashed out by Hamilton et al as part of a brutal political struggle including many dirty tricks on both sides. Two adjacent questions: 1) what signals of memes/news predict that X is likely to emerge from the noise and become one of the few stories/memes thats significant e.g the process of the Wall falling has started with small events which are detectable but almost nobody notices or realises what a big deal they will be in a few weeks, how soon can we detect X is happening then predict X is Y% likely to be a big story, with what confidence? Dominic Cummings Vast amounts of what you read on this is rubbish. Will live players use the next five months to build build build or waste the most important element in conflict, time, and let non-player characters stumble into a set of critical decisions in November? Our impression was there is valuable low hanging fruit for governments, hedge funds, campaigns, Thucydides. I will publish soon a chronology of 1862-67 following the twists and turns of Schleswig-Holstein, the escalating conflict with Austria, the domestic conflict running through the period. If hed run the Hillary campaign in 2016, no Trump as President. Follow Zvi. , General Groves. Because he looked on the whole universe and all that is in it as a riddle, as a secret which could be read by applying pure thought to certain evidence, certain mystic clues which God had laid about the world to allow a sort of philosopher's treasure hunt to the esoteric brotherhood. are great. It was a direct inspiration for my terrorist demand to Boris, July 2019: we must create an ARPA. ): how much was the. , Paret et al. And notice that despite their vast success Buffett & Munger have had almost zero success in persuading anybody to run their companies the way they run Berkshire! Vernon Smith, economics Nobel-winner, argues that TOMS provides a better basis for economic models and prediction than modern neoclassical economics. A great textbook by the worlds leading scholar on the subject. E.g rapidly speeding up construction/housing/infrastructure, how to accelerate scientific discovery and technological development. Many academics predicted OpenAIs approach would not work but have been proved repeatedly wrong.). It would be ridiculous to be bitter about Hollywood. Some interesting things I've read recently - Substack The peacetime bureaucracy knew what it valued. The Limits of Quantum Computers, Scott Aaronson (Scientific American, 2008). Based on a course Susskind taught in San Francisco to give people a basic physics education. A classic on the 1972 campaign. For us its often seen as high level political philosophy but it was bashed out by Hamilton et al as part of a brutal political struggle including many dirty tricks on both sides. I enjoyed/learned from Isaacsons biography of Steve Jobs. The title comes from. Buy the book, support Zvi. Caitlyn Scott-Lee is said to have been found in a forested area next to a playing field at the 44,000-per-year Wycombe Abbey School on Friday night. A general introduction to number theory, topology, calculus and other subjects. Ive got a list of a few dozen people I follow on Twitter (I use Tweetdeck + Lists for Twitter) and will make this public shortly. E.g Introduction to Strategic History, Modern Strategy, Strategy and Defence Planning (reading now). The best book about Gdels Theorem (according to the editor of Gdels Collected Works) which explains why almost everything one reads about it including by some famous scientists (e.g. , maybe the greatest mathematician alive, is brilliant and incredibly useful for someone like me explaining a lot of fundamental concepts in non-technical language. ), genetics, expert judgement, finance and many other topics with the focus on how education policy has to cope in order to train problem solvers for the coming challenges. Dominic Cummings on Twitter Rosen on military innovation, very relevant to discussions on things like drones and AI in Ukraine. A remarkable 19th Century book about propaganda and politics that influenced Lenin, Hitler and PR pioneers like Bernays. All ideas welcome. The critical meta-lesson is the same for all the below: practically nobody has any interest in extreme performance and all governments in the west will try to stop you applying these lessons. But this also means theres always billion dollar bills on the pavement sometimes even trillion dollar bills, like do vaccines much faster and smarter than usual in spring 2020, and like now with 2024 approaching People, ideas, machines in that order! Robert Coram wrote a biography. Almost anything good you read on strategy and conflict is based on ideas you see here. I like reading stuff about people where incentives and feedback work, from used car salesmen to fortune tellers. Blurb endorsement by Einstein. Michael also wrote the textbook on QCs, one of the top ten cited physics books ever written. or waste the most important element in conflict. (Also note that the oversight for Groves was a group of just four who met with no secretariat and no formal records.) Governments find it very, very hard to fund such ventures. They have insurgent energy and feed on grievance.
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